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Financial and banking crisis
Lysoňková, Jana ; Revenda, Zbyněk (advisor) ; Šíma, Ondřej (referee)
The bachelor thesis is focused on the issue of financial and banking crisis which is shown in relation to a specific case. It is divided into three chapters. The first part discusses general concepts such as currency, banking, debt and systemic crises. The second chapter offers a specific view of the current banking crisis in Italy, its brief historical and geographical development. It deals mainly with the non-performing loans of commercial banks and the slowing economic development. For this purpose, the thesis attempts to describe the Italian banking system, to explain the structure of banks and their main economic indicators. In the last part, a particular Italian bank, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, is presented. The foundation, growth and its influence on the earth are discussed. The attempt is to demonstrate the reasons for its bankruptcy.
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Analysis of the currency crisis in Russia
Nikonova, Inga ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Šíma, Ondřej (referee)
This bachelor thesis describes the financial crisis in the Russian Federation, which happened in 2014. The theoretical part covers the necessary general information concerning the financial crisis: the definition, the causes of the origin and the general theoretical models of the crisis. This section also describes two types of crisis indicators, more specifically deals with modern indicators and generalizes the effects of the currency crisis on the economy. The analytical part focuses on the analysis of the financial crisis in compliance with the theoretical part. In addition, the author performs an econometric analysis of the change of exchange rate change on the change of modern indicators and conducts a regression model. In conclusion, the author summarizes the impact of the recent currency crisis on various areas of the Russian economy.
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Indicators of currency and banking crisis
Kašpar, Jan ; Revenda, Zbyněk (advisor) ; Šíma, Ondřej (referee)
This diploma thesis focuses on indicators of currency and banking crises and examines their reliability. The analysis is performed on real economic events - the monetary crisis analysiswill be related to the crisis in Russia in 1998 and in the banking crisis we will examine events in Ireland in 2008-2010. In case of both crises we will try to make a strict definition because the economic literature nor any law regulation do not offer any, whereas for time series analysis is the determination of the outbreak and the end of the crisis crucial. We also look at the change in the understanding of the financial crisis, from the concept of monetary, banking and debt crises typical for the end of the last century and gradually transitioning to a comprehensive approach to the financial crisis as a systemic crisis that represents the current direction of economic thought. The main objective is to analyze the reliability of currency crisis and banking crises indicators on the example of selected economic events. We will try to follow the development of indicators within a few years and look for the development trend, predicting the impending problems. There are also described some methodological problems concerning the research of indicators of financial crises. In the end we will have a comparison of both countries and emphasize what they have in common and what is different.
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Global Games
Fiala, Tomáš ; Gregor, Martin (advisor) ; Janda, Karel (referee)
In this thesis we review literature about the coordination problem under an uncertainty. We set up a continuum player model of collective action, in which part of the population must coordinate on an action in order to achieve a mutual benefit. The complete information version of the model features multiple equilibria. We study the role of various sources of uncertainty in the model and compare them. We also examine the role of private and public information. We discuss particularly the global game, the coordination game of incomplete information in which agents received different but correlated signals about the state. We demonstrate that in the global game an unique equilibrium can be found by iterated elimination of dominated strategies. We compare the global game to related models and examine the consequences of relaxing the assumptions of global game. In addition we show some practical implication of the model for revolutions and currency crises.
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Napětí na devizovém trhu: měření pomocí teorie extrémních hodnot
Zuzáková, Barbora ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Benecká, Soňa (referee)
This thesis discusses the phenomenon of currency crises, in particular it is devoted to empirical identification of crisis periods. As a crisis indicator, we aim to utilize an exchange market pressure index which has been revealed as a very powerful tool for the exchange market pressure quantification. Since enumeration of the exchange market pressure index is crucial for further analysis, we pay special attention to different approaches of its construction. In the majority of existing literature on exchange market pressure models, a currency crisis is defined as a period of time when the exchange market pressure index exceeds a predetermined level. In contrast to this, we incorporate a probabilistic approach using the extreme value theory. Our goal is to prove that stochastic methods are more accurate, in other words they are more reliable instruments for crisis identification. We illustrate the application of the proposed method on a selected sample of four central European countries over the period 1993 - 2012, or 1993 - 2008 respectively, namely the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The choice of the sample is motivated by the fact that these countries underwent transition reforms to market economies at the beginning of 1990s and therefore could have been exposed to speculative attacks on their newly arisen currencies. These countries are often assumed to be relatively homogeneous group of countries at similar stage of the integration process. Thus, a resembling development of exchange market pressure, particularly during the last third of the estimation period, would not be surprising.
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Oil and Exchange Rates of Developed Countries Importing Oil
Skoupil, Lubomír ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Korbel, Jiří (referee)
This diploma thesis looks from theoretical and practical point of view at the relation between the price of oil and exchange rates of developed countries importing this vital resource. First, the character of the dependence between terms of trade and exchange rates is analyzed, followed by a description and verification of models of relationship between the terms of trade and exchange rates. Subsequent text is focused on another models, which analyze directly the connection between oil prices and exchange rates. The thesis ends with a discussion on other possible connecting links in this relation.
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Analysis of balance of payments in relation with currency crises occurence
Kučera, Adam ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Vejmělek, Jan (referee)
The bachelor thesis is concerned with issue of an external economic imbalance and its possible implication in a currency crisis. The theoretical part of the thesis defines basic terms related to the theme and describes the mechanism of an emergence of the external economic imbalance. It also establishes economic variables, whose progress is related to an emergence of the imbalance and an appearance of a currency crisis. In the practical part of the thesis an empirical research is conducted -- it is based on an analysis of a historical progress of these chosen variables in four countries, which were affected by a currency crisis -- Mexico, Russia, Brazil and Argentina. At the end, a synthesis of empirically ascertained findings is made, together with construction of a simple regression model.
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Currency and financial crises at the end of 20th century
Poláčková, Vitalie ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Černá, Iveta (referee)
This thesis deals with the issue of currency and financial crises, which came at the end of the 20th century. The first part gives attention to the theoretical definition of the currency crises. In the first chapter are defined the types of crises. The second chapter is focused on the causes and results of currency crises and the activity of IMF during it. The third chapter deals with the models of currency crises. The second half is focused on a characterization of chosen concrete cases of currency crises in the 90's. Specifically, their origination and impact on the affected countries.
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Currency crisis in Czech rep. in 1997 and its alternative scenarios
Otřísal, Gabriel ; Skopeček, Jan (advisor) ; Svoboda, Miroslav (referee)
This paper is dedicated to the first currency crisis in the Czech republic, which took place in 1997. It analyses the period perceding crisis, the development of the very crisis and its impacts. The main aim of this paper is to identify the crisis' roots and to map them. On this ground it consequently forms a hypothesis, that with a different mix of monetary and fiscal policy, nonexecution of currency interventions or with a sooner abandonment of the pegged exchange rate, we could have witnessed a different scenario. The paper is also complemented by a binary model of currency crisis prediction and an interview with a participant of the 1997' events.
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